Is Gareth Southgate The Luckiest England Manager Ever?

 

Is Garth Southgate the luckiest man to ever manage England?

The question of whether Gareth Southgate is the "luckiest" England manager ever is subjective and depends on the criteria used to define "luck." However, here are some points that can be considered when evaluating Southgate's tenure:

World Cup 2018: Southgate led England to the semi-finals, their best performance since 1990. But despite this impressive feat, on paper, Southgate's England team still managed to lose three matches in that tournament (twice to Belgium and once to Croatia). 

Also, England were fortunate enough to enter the "easier" side of the draw, as reward for their second placed finish in their group. 

Euro 2020: Under his management, England reached the final for the first time in history, although they lost to Italy on penalties. Much like in 2018, England were fortunate to make their way to the final through the easier side of the draw. 

Southgate came under intense scrutiny after losing the final, for being tactically beaten by Italy manager, Roberto Mancini. Many England fans believe that was a missed opportunity for England to win a major trophy. 

Talent Pool

Southgate has benefited from a golden generation of English players, including talents like Harry Kane, Raheem Sterling, Marcus Rashford, Jadon Sancho, Jude Bellingham, Phil Foden, and a strong defensive line-up.  Many fans believe its the talent of players that have given England relative success, rather than Southgate himself. 

Comparisons with Past Managers

• Sir Alf Ramsey: Managed England to their only World Cup victory in 1966. He had a unique set of players and a different footballing context.
• Bobby Robson: Reached the World Cup semi-finals in 1990, often considered unlucky not to go further due to controversial refereeing decisions.
• Terry Venables: Led England to the semi-finals of Euro 1996, experiencing the heartbreak of losing on penalties.

Contextual Factors

• Favourable Draws: Southgate's teams have sometimes benefited from favourable tournament draws. For instance, in the 2018 World Cup, England's path to the semi-finals included facing Colombia, Sweden, and Croatia, rather than traditional powerhouses.
• Modern Football Dynamics: Changes in football dynamics, including more structured tournament preparations and better sports science, have played a role in recent successes.

Media and Public Perception

• Media Support: Southgate has enjoyed relatively positive media coverage compared to some of his predecessors, which can reduce pressure and create a more conducive environment for success.
• Public Expectation Management: He has been adept at managing public expectations, fostering a positive team spirit, and maintaining a good rapport with players and fans alike.

Conclusion

While "luck" is a factor in any manager's success, Southgate's achievements are also a result of his strategic acumen, the talent at his disposal, and the infrastructural support from the English football ecosystem. 

His tenure has been marked by significant progress and a shift in how the England team is perceived both domestically and internationally. Calling him the "luckiest" manager might overlook the deliberate and effective strategies he has implemented, though he has undoubtedly benefited from favourable circumstances as well.

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